The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a briefing regarding Hurricane Erin, which is expected to impact the Mid-Atlantic coast this week. The full briefing can be accessed at https://www.weather.gov/media/akq/briefings/LatestBriefing.pdf.
According to the NWS, there is high confidence that Hurricane Erin will eventually curve to the north or northeast and remain offshore of the US East Coast. However, as Erin moves in this direction, it is forecasted to become a very large storm. This development will bring large and increasing waves, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf conditions along the Mid-Atlantic coast throughout much of the week. The agency also warns that significant beach and dune erosion is likely.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for all Atlantic Coastal waters. The potential for wind gusts of 34 knots or greater is rising across land areas along the immediate coast from Wednesday night through Thursday evening.
The NWS expects widespread moderate coastal flooding from Thursday into Thursday night, with some areas possibly experiencing these conditions through Friday, especially across the mid and upper bay regions. Major flooding could occur in locations adjacent to the Lower Bay, Virginia Beach, and along the Atlantic coast of Currituck County during Thursday evening’s high tide cycle. In vulnerable areas, inundation levels could reach one to three feet above ground level.
The risk of rip currents remains high for the rest of the week. Swimming and surfing conditions are expected to be very dangerous due to wave action that may also result in significant dune and beach erosion from Wednesday into Thursday night.
Marine forecasts indicate that tropical storm force wind gusts could begin as early as Wednesday evening and persist through Thursday. Seas are predicted to reach heights between 12 and 16 feet by Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Tide times for Messick are forecasted at 6:59 PM on August 19, 7:23 AM and 7:57 PM on August 20, and 8:19 AM and 8:46 PM on August 21.
